Displacement and the NIMBY wars

Downtown skyline, Madison, Wisconsin - site of our latest SafeGrowth training
- photo courtesy of Wiki Creative Commons

You always seemed so sure
That one day we'd be fighting

In a suburban war

Your part of town against mine

by Gregory Saville 

The rock group Arcade Fire wrote those lyrics about the alienation and gentrification in cities in their Grammy-winning song “The Suburbs”. It's a theme that arose several times in our SafeGrowth trainings in different cities this year, particularly as it pertains to the risk of displacing the troubles, disorder, homelessness, and crime in one neighborhood to others around the city. 

Displacement has shown up in this blog over the years including how gentrification displaces the poor, or how Melbourne, Australia positively displaced graffiti into a successful industry called street art tours.

MADISON

We spent time last week teaching in the beautiful city of Madison, Wisconsin. We were delighted by the dedication of members of very engaged police and planning departments, community members, business downtown advocates, and others. They chose their sites for projects and are now digging into their work to improve livability and safety. 

As in so many other cities we’ve visited over the past year, homelessness rose to the surface. We remind our students to keep an eye out for problems with crime displacement – moving problems from one area to another. They must not trigger fights between one part of town against another.

It is the same in other cities like Vancouver, Saskatoon, and Palm Springs where SafeGrowth teams identify homelessness as a major concern. Of course, homelessness, while troubling and tragic, is not a crime. Yet displacing people on the street from one place to another happens over and over and one neighborhood ends up fighting a war against another in another part of town. These NIMBY wars – Not-In-My-Back Yard – tarnish everyone and starts needless political wars. 

Architect Oscar Newman was among the first to describe the concept of crime displacement in his 1972 book Defensible Space - photo Livingston Press

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

The research article most commonly cited to describe crime displacement originally appeared in 1976. It was written by one of the original researchers from the first-ever evaluation of CPTED – the Westinghouse Studies. CPTED of that era was based on the work of architect Oscar Newman, among others, and his book on Defensible Space. 

However, it was in Newman's book where you will find the original deep dive into crime displacement. Newman spent years studying crime and prevention in New York public housing and he claims that it was Police Captain Arnold Berkman who tracked crime around the properties, including when it displaced. 

“As a vigorous police effort is concentrated in one project, criminals respond by moving into adjacent projects. Displacement, however, is seldom a full 100 percent.” (page 205). 

It is unclear from Newman’s book exactly how he and Captain Berkman traced displacement accurately enough to conclude that 100% displacement was rare. Subsequent research does seem to confirm that this is the case. 

Or does it? 

New research uncovered a different story - some of the first empirical examples of malign, negative crime displacement.

Movement around cities happens in many ways - trains, walkways, and roads. But other things move around cities, such as crime. This is the concept of crime displacement.

We advise those in our classes and in our projects that, when it comes to displacement, take nothing for granted. To the best of your ability, plan for the worst as well as the best. As in all types of neighborhood safety planning, include everyone potentially affected by displacement.  The question of displacement remains very much open.

Newman's conclusion from 50 years ago applies as much today: 

“There are serious moral implications to the question of displacement, and they are not as easily dismissed... The full extent of the displacement problem is yet to be understood and a means for coping with it developed.” (Page 206)

Blinded by the light

The Greek philosopher Aristotle created the scientific method - knowledge proceeds through evidence, objective analysis, and logic.
Photo Creative Commons

by Gregory Saville

As Bruce Springsteen writes in his song, it’s easy to get blinded by something you are passionate about. That especially applies to crime theory.

It’s hard enough to implement crime prevention without having to constantly check whether the prevention theory itself is under attack. Of course, prevention practitioners should know the strengths and weaknesses of their programs, including theory veracity. But when theory itself remains unchallenged by scientists, even when emerging data contradicts that theory, it makes the practitioner's job much more difficult. 

When that happens, practitioners are unsure whether it is the theory that is wrong or the implementation. 

Take crime displacement theory. When a crime happens in one location, will preventive measures move it somewhere else? Traditional displacement theory says crime will not necessarily move elsewhere. Or if it does, it might create benefits in other ways (the so-called diffusion of benefits theory).

Most likely, we are told, the displaced crime will reduce in impact – it won’t get worse! We are told dozens of studies confirm this theory over a number of years. 

WHAT IF IT IS WRONG? 

Then a British undergraduate thesis on displacement uncovered some disturbing patterns in the evidence.

Catherine Phillip's analysis discovered, “that displacement may, in fact, be more common than is widely claimed, particularly in the case of studies with offenders. Furthermore… the findings of the Kirkholt Burglary Prevention Project, which purport to demonstrate a diffusion of benefits, are shown to be based on questionable evidence.”

Curiously, this was met with deafening silence in the situational crime prevention community. Phillip's referring specifically to the scientific evidence would, one would think, sound alarms to scientific theorists. Not so.

A few years later, Tarah Hodgkinson, myself, and Martin Andresen, conducted a detailed study on displacement over a multi-year timeframe using extensive ethnographic/statistical research in a city where we had delivered CPTED for over a decade. We combined the best qualitative and quantitative research. Our research discovered that, indeed, displacement was not benign, there was no diffusion of benefits, and alarmingly, we uncovered clear evidence of malign displacement in which crime got much worse in two different areas. 

We published our study in one of the most prestigious journals in the criminological community – the British Journal of Criminology.

Again, from the displacement research crowd… crickets! Apparently, data and evidence, even in a thorough crime study, were also not enough to sound the alarm about troubles with displacement theory. 

Why?

Marc Brackett's Permission To Feel

CONFIRMATION BIAS

For many years, Gerard Cleveland and I have taught our police students emotional intelligence (EI). EI was created by psychologists in the 1970s and 1980s, particularly the work of Yale University’s professor Peter Salovey and his colleagues. The best recent book on EI is Marc Brackett’s, Permission to Feel.

The role of emotions, it turns out, is poorly understood among professionals and, I would add, researchers. Emotions explain why researchers get attached to their theories and, when it comes to criminology, why they refuse to accept new theories or abandon old ones.

The methodology of science suggests that researchers should carefully manage their emotions and follow the data. In displacement, at least, it seems that may not always have been the case. The attachment to theories – this clinging to something when contradictory evidence arises – emerges from poor emotional intelligence and the inability to detach from a theory and look at alternate theories with a clear eye. 

Avoid theory blindness by looking carefully at the data,
self-awareness, and detaching from bias

SECOND GENERATION CPTED

Take, for example, 2nd Generation CPTED! For years, Gerry Cleveland and I heard complaints from traditional crime prevention practitioners that “if it’s not about changing the physical environment, it’s just not CPTED”. 

When we pointed out that the founders of CPTED – Jane Jacobs, Oscar Newman, C. Ray Jeffery – did not limit their discussions to architecture; they also spoke of the interconnectedness between theories, of the role of neighbors in crime prevention, and of social cohesion in neighborhoods. Getting locals to create a sense of defensible space was the mantra in authentic CPTED, yet those practitioners attached to physical target hardening ignored this part of the theory. 

This is theory-blindness! It is often triggered by emotional attachments to a particular view and it is known in psychology as confirmation bias – the tendency to search only for information that confirms your prior beliefs of something. It is not surprising we are sometimes blinded by the light of a theory to which we are attached. We are all, after all, human. But ignoring data and cherry-picking evidence that supports only one particular theory is not only unscientific – it obstructs our work to help create safer places. Our communities deserve better.

POSTSCRIPT

I spoke too soon in regards to crickets from the criminological community. The situational theory cluster inside the movement might ignore, but not so the mainstream criminology community. The American Society of Criminology just awarded our own Tarah Hodgkinson the prestigious Robert Bursik Award for the displacement study I referenced above that Tarah, Martin Andresen, and I co-published in the British Journal of Criminology. Congratulations Tarah.