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| Night skyline of Calgary - city of neighborhoods, residential towers and site of the 2026 CanAm ICA CPTED Conference |
by Gregory Saville
I’ve been diving into some exciting reading starting with a disturbing sci-fi called Scythe. It’s the story of a future where AI has helped humanity conquer disease, aging, and accidental death and now governs society with near-perfect efficiency. Scythe reads like the smooth winter ice on a northern lake that seems safe, right up to the moment it begins to crack beneath you.
I’m also re-reading two non-fiction books. They are more challenging, perhaps because they are real and, like real life, contain possibilities for multiple futures. Paul Hawken’s 2007 Blessed Unrest, is a sweeping account of the vast, decentralized movement of environmental, social justice, and community organizations quietly reshaping the moral ecology of the world in recent decades. It is a story in which much has already come to pass.
The book reads as a cultural argument rather than an empirical one. Hawken does not offer crime statistics or econometric models. He is describing something more organic: the emergence of civil society as a kind of adaptive immune system responding to social harm. Steven Pinker has convincingly posed a similar argument over a longer historical arc in Enlightenment Now. For practical examples, think of our blogs on adaptive reuse community marketplaces in Denver and Third Places for the homeless in Madison.
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| East Village riverwalk views in Calgary - one of the Jane's Walk Tours during the 2026 CPTED conference - Street activation means incorporating nature |
THE GREAT CRIME DECLINE CONTINUES
Are there data to support this urban adaptive immune system?
The Great Crime Decline started in the 1990s and accelerated from 2007 and 2017. In the United States, FBI Uniform Crime Reports document declines in the crime rates, including statistics that show the national violent crime rate declined 18.9 percent over a decade. It is one of the steepest and most sustained drops in modern U.S. history.
Interestingly, over that same period, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the number of nonprofit organizations grew by roughly 29 percent, while employment within those organizations increased by about 18 percent. Growth in the for-profit sector over the same period was far more modest.
CORRELATION ≠ CAUSATION
SYMMETRY > 0
Being cautious about this parallel timing, it’s important to note the trends do not prove Hawken’s thesis more than any social theory is conclusively proven. Yet there is no denying it gives it empirical weight.
This could not be farther from the AI-perfected Scythe society. It suggests that civil society (admittedly, a slippery term in need of tightening) expanded rapidly during the same time that violent crime receded across the country. Society might not look very civil in today’s news in this country, but this pattern happened over decades, not within the past year.
Nonprofits and Third Places in civil society may not directly cause crime drops in any simple way because functioning neighborhoods are ecosystems that evolve together across the city in complex ways. But it is worth restating a powerful, and obvious, hypotheses – improvements in civic capacity have direct impact on livability and for crime. This is an hypothesis tested in different studies over the years, for example: Community and the Crime Decline: The Causal Effect of Local Nonprofits on Violent Crime.
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| Comeback Cities by Paul S. Grogan and Tony Proscio |
HOW DOES IT WORK?
My second read, Comeback Cities: A Blueprint for Urban Neighborhood Revival, answers how this works. Paul Grogan and Tony Proscio examine how American cities began recovering in the 1990s after decades of disinvestment. Their conclusion? Urban revival did not come from top-down policy or market forces alone, but rather from the slow reconstruction of neighborhood institutions, community development corporations, and housing nonprofits. It is the same long-term strategy upon which SafeGrowth works to rebuild trust and local ownership.
Criminologists Tarah Hodgkinson and Martin Andresen reinforce this point in their study Preventing Crime at Places by examining the limits of place-based prevention approaches that focus narrowly on opportunity reduction rather than underlying motives.
“By building cohesive networks of capable community partners, integrated strategies can improve the overall well-being of the community through local governance systems.”
Where do we find places of activation? Libraries, cultural spaces, shared work hubs, neighborhood cafés, arts centers, and informal gathering sites. These are not simply amenities in the narrow sense. They function as social infrastructure, creating routine contact and informal guardianship. Our blog on the Third Place, the Denver Art Society, offers examples how they use problem-solving as a way to improve street life.
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| Public art in Calgary. Great places need cultural statements - proof that cities, like people, benefit from a little headspace |
THE STORY WE KEEP MISSING
As urban chaos captures our attention across the country, another story has been quietly unfolding for decades. We examine it in depth in Hope Rises, our forthcoming book.
This story sits at the core of our livability thesis. Rather than treating crime as a technical failure to be corrected by AI, we need to focus on strengthening the everyday environments where people meet, live and play. Environments like ecologically designed village-style housing, Third Places, and urban green spaces and parks.
When cities invest in social infrastructure, whether through housing organizations or grassroots nonprofits, they reinforce the conditions that make violence less likely to take hold. When cities organize neighborhoods with interlinked safety plans and provide opportunities for the training to deploy problem-solving, they show how to increase social resilience.
Scythe imagines a dystopia that is not inevitable. We believe public safety is ecological, and livability is one of its primary engines.




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